The next version of the Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan (TCRMP) is under development and scheduled for release in 2028. The Harte Research Institute (HRI) has been involved since the inception of the TCRMP planning process 10 years ago. For the 2028 plan, HRI aims to enhance community resilience by improving our understanding of ecosystem vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) and informing proactive planning. Building on previous work, we updated SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model) outputs using improved inputs and numerical parameters (e.g., DEM, landcover, and accretion rates) for 0.5 m and 1.5 m SLR scenarios by 2100. These updates provide refined projections of habitat change, including marsh, flats, and other critical environments, and help identify when significant impacts occur.

In addition to future projections, we conducted a habitat transition analysis from the past to the present to understand the historical drivers of change and contextualize long-term trends in vulnerability. This dual approach - retrospective and predictive - enables classification of coastal units according to the principal causes of change, such as development pressure, geomorphic shifts, subsidence, and sediment supply. It also supports the identification of Areas of Interest (AOIs) where vulnerabilities are greatest, and resiliency projects are most needed.

Results will inform resilience strategies and projects for inclusion in the TCRMP. By combining improved modeling with stakeholder-driven planning, this work provides a science-based foundation for adaptive management under accelerating climate-driven change.