Apalachicola Bay in the northeastern Gulf historically supported a productive oyster population and a vibrant estuarine ecosystem.  In recent years, the bay has experienced a decline in ecosystem health and deterioration of oyster reefs.  It has been hypothesized that periods of increased salinity due to extended droughts throughout the watershed and possibly river flow reductions through managed withdrawals have played a role in the decline of the estuary.  High-resolution hydrodynamic modeling accurately simulates the bay’s hydrographic response to changing river flow and atmospheric conditions, but this type of modeling is very computational expensive.  In order to understand how the bay will likely respond to changing climate and alternate water management scenarios, statistical and machine learning models are developed, tested, and applied to modeled river flow data sets.  The result is a toolkit for evaluating potential impacts of future climate and reservoir management scenarios on the bay’s water properties that are important for ecosystem health.