Stakeholders in Jackson, MS and Bay County, FL engaged in one-day exploratory scenario planning workshops giving them views into several plausible futures under different climate and economic conditions.

In Jackson, MS (as in most of the Gulf Coast) summer heat is a recurring problem. Extreme heat days and heatwaves are starting sooner and lasting longer into the fall. Heat-related illnesses exacerbate underlying health conditions such as heart disease and high blood pressure but are an undercounted comorbidity and cause of death—hence, heat is sometimes referred to as “the silent killer”. Heat causes fainting, headaches, dehydration, skin irritation, and mental agitation. It makes people want to avoid going outside and can be disruptive to normal routines like going to work, social events, and to the store.  

Poor housing quality, deteriorating water infrastructure, low incomes, and low insurance coverage already make it difficult to stay cool, hydrated, and healthy in Jackson during extreme heat. And climate change will make it worse. But how much worse?

In Bay County, FL, Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified from a Category 2 to a Category 5 storm the day before it made landfall leaving little or no time to evacuate. Homes, schools, grocery stores, and healthcare facilities were damaged or destroyed. Two main hospitals in Bay County sustained substantial damage. One operated without water and with only partial electricity. Providers could not access health records, and some hospitals were unable to reach emergency response contacts to request support. 

Today, Bay County residents still suffer from Michael’s impact. Debris and loose insulation combined with mold from water damage have spawned respiratory issues in residents. Meanwhile, there is a huge dearth of medical providers in Bay County as many moved away after suffering trauma, burnout, or losing their homes or workplaces. What happens when a hurricane with the power and breadth of Michael strikes again? 

Learn how Jackson and Bay County stakeholders used exploratory scenario planning to prepare their communities and health systems for a range of possible futures.