Louisiana faces increasing trend of climate-driven hazards including extreme heat, drought, and wildfire risk that threaten public health, ecosystems, and economic stability. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of future heat-related climate risks across Louisiana by integrating surface observations, satellite data, historical climatology, and statistically downscaled climate model projections. Outputs from CMIP6 and CMIP5 under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway were used to generate fine-scale spatial projections for extreme temperature, drought, and wildfire hazards at the census tract level for 2050, 2075, and 2100.

A baseline hazard intensity metric was first developed for each hazard using long term surface observational datasets and satellite derived products to capture historical spatial and temporal variability. Relevant indices and thresholds were defined for each hazard based on established hazard assessment literature. Climate model variables corresponding to each hazard were extracted from multi model ensembles and bias corrected using historical observations. The model outputs were then statistically downscaled using the delta change method to translate large scale climate signals to local spatial resolutions appropriate for census tract level analysis, thereby overcoming the coarse grid limitations of global climate models. Spatial interpolation and resampling techniques were applied to ensure uniform grid structure across all hazard layers. Changes in hazard frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution were quantified relative to the historical baseline, and model outputs were cross validated using independent geospatial datasets and observed climatological records to assess consistency, uncertainty, and robustness.

Results demonstrate strong spatial heterogeneity in projected hazard patterns across Louisiana. Urban centers and southwestern parishes exhibit the greatest vulnerability to extreme heat due to urban heat island effects and population density. Northern and western regions show marked increases in drought frequency and severity. This study presents a unified, fine-scale climate risk assessment for heat-related hazards developed specifically for Louisiana.